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Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Strong’ Recovery Starting for Housing

U.S. homebuilders are an attractive investment as the housing market starts a “strong” recovery that may drive a surge in new-home sales, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said in a report today.

Housing has a “long list of positives,” including rising prices, job growth, supportive government policies and a decline in the so-called shadow inventory of homes, Goldman Sachs analysts Joshua Pollard and Anto Savarirajan wrote in a note to clients. They raised their rating on the homebuilding industry to attractive from neutral.

Public homebuilders, which have been taking market share from closely held companies, reported increasing orders this year as mortgage rates fell to record lows and the supply of existing homes for sale shrank. Construction of single-family houses rose 4.7 percent in June to a 539,000 annual rate, the fastest in two years, the Commerce Department said last week.

“The super cyclical housing market has turned and a strong recovery in new-home sales is ahead,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. “Over the last year a number of risks to the housing market have abated, giving us confidence that rising home prices will drive a 3-7 year up-cycle in the U.S. market.”

Pollard and Savarirajan added MDC Holdings Inc. (MDC) to its conviction buy list, raised KB Home (KBH) to buy from neutral, increased Ryland Group Inc. (RYL) to neutral from sell and lowered NVR Inc. (NVR) to sell from neutral. They maintained buy ratings on Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) and PulteGroup Inc. (PHM).

Stocks Gain

MDC Holdings jumped 5.7 percent, the most since February, to $33.18 in New York trading. KB Home climbed 3.6 percent to $10.16, while Ryland added 3.5 percent to $26.64.

The 13-member Bloomberg Industries homebuilder index reversed earlier losses and increased 1.1 percent. The measure has rallied 55 percent this year, compared with a 7.4 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

The U.S. economy has created enough jobs since the end of the recession in 2009 to fuel new-home sales at an annual rate of 550,000 to 600,000, the analysts said. New houses sold at a pace of 369,000 in May, the highest rate since 2010, the Commerce Department reported last month.

The Goldman Sachs analysts estimated new-home sales would reach 700,000 in 2014.

U.S. Policies

Government policies have improved in the past year by addressing supply instead of demand, the analysts wrote. Recent programs include the bulk sale of foreclosed single-family homes to investors who are converting them to rentals, and the expanded Home Affordable Refinance Program, which allows refinancing of properties worth less than their mortgages.

Investors “have yet to grasp the significant decline in shadow inventory,” as the supply of homes for sale has fallen to six months from 10 months in the past two years, Pollard and Savarirajan wrote. Shadow inventory, or the homes projected to hit the market through foreclosures and short sales, is down 15 percent in Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada and Texas, while growth in building permits indicates a 34 percent increase in demand in those states, they said.

“Investors are quickly swallowing new foreclosure supply, limiting shadow inventory and creating a floor for home prices,” Pollard and Savarirajan wrote. “We expect any further decline in inventory to serve as a platform for price appreciation, further aiding sales.”

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Housing Starts Rise 6.9 Percent in June

Nationwide housing production rose by 6.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 760,000 units in June, according to newly released figures from HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the fastest pace of new-home construction since October of 2008.

“This good report is in keeping with the results of our latest builder confidence survey, in which many of our members said that they are seeing an influx of more serious buyers to the new-homes market this summer,” observed Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “What’s especially encouraging is that, as consumers realize the advantages of purchasing a newly built home while prices and interest rates are so favorable, builders are able to put more crews back to work on construction sites across the country. This in turn is helping spur local economic growth, and policymakers need to be very careful to not take any steps that would derail the beginnings of such a positive trend at this crucial time.”

“This is one more piece of evidence that housing is starting to take back its traditional role of leading the nation out of recession, and tracks with our forecast for continued improvement in new construction through the end of this year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While many challenges continue to weigh down the housing recovery – including those related to builders’ and buyers’ access to credit, poor appraisals and the number of distressed properties in certain markets – production of single-family homes is now the strongest it has been since 2010 due to rising consumer demand brought on by improving market conditions.”

Single-family housing starts rose for a fourth consecutive month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 539,000 units in June, their fastest pace since April of 2010. Meanwhile, multifamily starts rose 12.8 percent to 221,000 units, in keeping with the solid pace of demand for rental units.

Regionally, combined single-and multi-family housing starts rose 22.2 percent in the Northeast and 36.9 percent in the West, but fell back 7.3 percent in the Midwest and 4.2 percent in the South in June. However, the declines were entirely due to monthly volatility on the multifamily side, as single-family starts posted gains across every region in June.

Issuance of new building permits, which can be an indicator of future building activity, fell 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 755,000 units in June following a large increase in the previous month. While single-family permitting posted a marginal, 0.6 percent gain to 493,000 units, multifamily permitting fell back 10.9 percent to 262,000 units from an above-trend pace in the previous month.

On a regional basis, permit issuance rose 2.9 percent in the West and held unchanged in the Northeast, but retreated 0.8 percent in the Midwest and 8 percent in the South in June.

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New Home vs. Used Home – Which Is For You?

The durable argument of whether it’s best to buy a new home or older one dates back centuries. And it’s never quite been resolved.

For every qualifier, there’s a disqualifier. For every “on one hand,” there’s an “on the other hand.”

Homebuilders and old-line real estate sales people might even bicker heatedly about the topic, with their own “Looks-great! Less-fulfilling!” twist on the old light-beer argument.

The truth is, builders can never fully re-create the nation’s quaint old neighborhoods, where every house was built architecturally distinct from the neighbor’s. And home buyers will never be able to fully assemble their dream homes the way they can on a vacant lot with a fantaz view.

So the choice between the two is always a relative call, not a dollar-and-cents one, says business author and investment expert Ric Edelman.

“There are many factors beyond economics that drive the decision,” says Edelman. “Buying a home should be more of a lifestyle decision, because so much of the economics are beyond your control.”

Edelman, who penned such bestsellers as “The Truth About Money” and “Ordinary People, Extraordinary Wealth,” has built two family homes over the years and is now fixing up a “resale” he purchased..

“One of the fundamental mistakes that consumers make is a rush to judgment,” he said. “They often dismiss a new home or a resale when one is far more appropriate for them than the other.”

So how do you decide which best fits your needs and personality?

Below are a few pros and cons in the own-resale debate:

Locale: The oft-recited real estate mantra of “location, location, location” is still relevant. Most older, established neighborhoods are in the town’s center, which can be good or bad depending on the vitality of your urban area. New subdivisions — and newer schools — are generally on the outskirts. But the expense of a daily commute is one factor that many buyers forget to consider, Edelman said.

Price: Existing homes are usually less expensive per square foot, in part because of escalating land costs in new subdivisions. But ownership costs are considered more predictable — almost inevitable — in a new home, especially considering the cost of a code upgrade or remodeling of a vintage home. Some builders will include closing costs as part of their price of a new home, although that builder has a set amount he must get from that home to make a profit. Price is more readily negotiable for an existing home. Also, a hidden cost in many new subdivisions is a homeowner’s association, with mandatory fees and other assessments as well as architectural controls that may surface at remodeling or expansion time. Do your homework.

Move-in complications, advantages: The resale is sitting there waiting for occupancy, warts and all. But the wait for a new home can seem interminable, though the buyer can check on quality control as it’s being built. If your finished house is among the first in a new subdivision, prepare to navigate through construction teams and precariously misplaced nails for months on end. And don’t forget that daytime hammer serenade.

Neighborhood: “People moving into new neighborhoods are more homogeneous — the same things that appeal to you also appeal to others like you,” says author Edelman. “When a development goes up, it offers an opportunity for you to help create your own neighborhood lifestyle. If you want to move into community where your children have lots of playmates, that may be for you.” In an older community, he said, people have moved in and out over the years and you tend to get more diversity of neighbor backgrounds that include older people, singles, families and renters.

Living space and design: Lower building costs of the past mean more home for the money for the buyer of a resale. Resale basements may have been finished out nicely for additional living space. On the other hand, new-construction homes often employ more efficient, innovative uses of square footage and property. Also, newer “zero-lot-line” developments offer more living space per square foot than a same-size lot that surrounds a resale.

Customization: In a new house, you can pick your own color schemes, flooring, kitchen cabinets, appliances, custom wiring for TV’s, computers, phones and speakers, etc., as well as have more upgrade options. Modern features like media rooms, extra-large closets and extra-large bathrooms and tubs are also more attainable in ground-up construction. In a used home, you rely largely on the previous resident’s tastes and technological whims, unless you plan to farm thousands into a remodeling and rewiring. Be warned: It’s unwise to wallpaper for at least one year in a new house until it settles, says Edelman. The wallpaper will tear. (But it is OK to paint.)

Character: While many new homes are built in “contextual” style, which blends elements of the old and the new, it’s still hard to emulate a pre-Civil War house in New Orleans, a Victorian home in San Francisco or a brick Row House in Boston. Hardwood floors, vaulted windows, high ceilings, built-in cabinetry and other design nuances express a certain individuality in older homes that’s nearly impossible to copy. Many new-home buyers believe they put the character in their own homes.

Safety: Builders have to follow very strict guidelines in new-homes and additions, especially in the West and Northwest, where earthquake safety standards must be observed. In general, new homes are usually more fire-safe and better accommodating of new security and garage-door systems.

Landscaping: Mature trees, robust shrubs, gardens, rose bushes and perennially well-watered lawns are some of the rewards of an older home, while most new homes are apt to yield wee trees, fewer walkways and sparse vegetation. Landscaping is an expensive proposition today for the cost-conscious home builder.

Energy efficiency: Advantage: new construction. Game, set and match as well. New-home designers can use new building materials such as glazed Energy Star windows, thicker insulation and other technology that will lower future energy costs for the owner. Most states now have minimum energy-efficiency requirements for new construction. Kitchens and laundry areas in new homes are designed to house more efficient energy-saving appliances. Older homes, unless they have undergone an energy retrofit, usually cost much more per square foot to air-condition and heat.

Amenities: Many new subdivisions offer neighborhood clubhouses, swimming pools, playgrounds, bike and jogging trails and picnic venues for residents. Older homes don’t, although many have better access to urban shopping venues and restaurants because they’re part of old, self-containing city-planning philosophies.

Maintenance: The charm of an older home often goes hand in hand with increased maintenance, especially if the previous owner(s) were not vigilant in upkeep. Building materials may be harder to replace or match in an expansion or remodeling. New homes generally come with at least a one-year warranty for the repair of some problems that develop as it settles into its foundation. But know what your warranty covers. Many are elusively written.

Taxes: Newer homes tend to spring up in less-developed, outlying municipalities, which may impose higher taxes on you because they’re subsidizing fewer inhabitants than the central metropolitan area. Your community will still need fire and police coverage, sidewalks, sewers and probably a new school. A more established home in a built-out area has a little more predictable tax structure.

Increasingly, “new” is no longer an option in some towns, and neither is “old” for most folks there. Realtor Graham Baxter of Los Gatos, Calif., operates in the Silicon Valley market, where most of the sales are $1 million plus and there is virtually no new housing stock. “The only new homes that tend to get built are the result of tear-downs,” he said.

To find new subdivisions and less expensive homes in the region, “You have to go 50 miles from the Valley to Tracy or Stockton. But you’d be surprised how many people make that commute.”

Compromise is obviously the name of the new-or-resale home-buying game, as it becomes apparent that the perfect house and perfect site probably don’t really exist. And finding what you want can be a protracted headache.

“Buying a home from anybody is much more complicated and challenging than people realize,” says Beau Brincefield, real estate attorney and author of “Brincefield’s Guide to Buying a Home; The Twenty-One Biggest Mistakes People Make When Buying a Home.”

With new-construction homes, “You’ve got all the same problems you have with resale homes and then some,” says Brincefield, who is a frequent lecturer on real estate and civil litigation. Brincefield says dozens of Web sites are created by people who bought defective new homes from builders but who have since discovered they have little recourse. “Obviously, there are a lot of good builders who stand behind their homes…and most people go through this process with no problems,” he said. “But those aren’t the ones I see.”

Some builders create no-asset, limited-liability companies in order to buffer themselves from claims, he said. Home warranties, especially those purchased from third-party warranty companies, usually aren’t as all-protective as consumers first believe. Read the fine print, Brincefield advises.

When considering purchase of a new home, make certain you are dealing directly with a builder who has a substantial net worth and not a no-asset subsidiary, he said. Avoid giving builders upfront money, he says. “If they have your deposit and go under, you won’t get either the house or your money back. Make sure the purchase contract is contingent on financing.”

Whether buying a new or resale home, always hire a properly credentialed individual to inspect the premises before you settle, Brincefield said. “Even some nationally known home inspection firms may send out an individual inspector who is minimally qualified to perform a good inspection.”

Because of the contract forms that many inspection firms use, the company typically has little financial risk for a poor inspection, Brincefield warns. “If they miss a bad roof, all they have to do is refund you the $200 or $300 (fee). Anytime you are given a written contract to sign, you should read it carefully and make sure you understand what you are signing.”

Buying a new or resale home without an experienced real estate attorney “is like playing Russian roulette,” he said. “Sure, there is only one bullet in the chamber, so you’re probably going to make it out all right. But there’s always that one bullet.”

Potential buyers should also scope out any vacant fields in the area surrounding their planned purchase and check with the city or zoning board to determine how that land is zoned, experts say. Recent buyers into both new and established subdivisions across the country have been stunned to discover the long-fallow retail parcel down the block will soon give way to a big-box retail megastore.

Because they like the customization options, first-time home buyers will sometimes opt for a new town home instead of a resale, with intent to move up to a single-family home in a few years, Edelman said. But that means the same builder, who will probably continue to build new units nearby for the next few years, will in essence determine the future value of that town home. That means the selling price for the owner of the town home could be tied to — or just below — the price of that newer town house the builder is still constructing.

While buying a used or new home should be largely a lifestyle decision, that still shouldn’t prevent the potential buyer from also thinking like a seller, Edelman said.

“For you will be one someday,” he said.

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Is Now The Time For A Young Person To Buy A Home?

Journalist Andy Johns shares his insight and perspective as a potential new home buyer.

I’m also relatively young (29) and just bought a home. I can share with you my thought process when it came to weighing the cost/benefit of buying a place vs renting.

Emotion

Prior to buying my own place I remember thinking “when I buy a home it has to be purely logical.” I felt that way because of the outcome of the recent housing crisis. What I witnessed was a bunch of people buying homes based largely on emotion and not on logic. They paid way too much money for the place because they were caught up in the emotion of being able to live in a big, beautiful place that they never would have anticipated being able to afford. However, affording the place was an illusion. It was a very believable illusion because of how financing was structured, making it seem possible and reasonable for a family to have 97% leverage on a home of their dreams.

So I would urge you to remove as much emotion from the purchase as possible. Anytime you’re thinking about leveraging yourself into hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt, I would err on the side of being logical and not emotional.

But I will say that part of the buying process MUST be emotional. After looking at several places I couldn’t find myself feeling good about paying $250,000 for a place that frankly wasn’t much better than my apartment. Eventually I settled on a place that was $100,000 above my initial budget because it felt much more like a home and that I wasn’t essentially buying an apartment. There is some middle ground between what is logically and emotionally ideal and you should very carefully think about what that line is. In the end, if you plan on buying a place and living in it for several years you don’t want to buy something that doesn’t feel like home. Be happy with the place both in terms of price tag and comfort/appeal.

Personal Finances

Planning – Before you even start thinking about buying a place you should get out Excel and lay out your expenses in a detailed fashion. Know exactly how much you spend per month and which of those expenses are persistent expenses you’ll have monthly no matter what. Do the same for how much income you bring in. From that you should have a clear understanding of what your free cashflow is after all income and expenses.

Cost of Living – My personal stance is that your total costs of living should not exceed half of your net take home income. So if you bring home $10,000 a month, you should not spend more than $5,000/month on all costs (mortgage + insurance + car payment + cell phone + utilities + school loans + etc). This ensures a couple of things:

  • You’re not letting emotions dominate your decision and you end up buying a place that is far too expensive
  • You give yourself enough buffer so that you can continue to save a healthy amount of income each month
  • You reduce the risk of not being able to pay your mortgage if conditions in your professional life change and instead of making $10,000/month you now make $7,000/month. Despite a 30% loss in wages you still have 20% gross margin at the end of the month (not including costs for food and miscellaneous bills)

Savings – Make sure that you have plenty of room in a “rainy day fund” after paying for the down payment and furnishing the place. Ideally you’ll have 6-12 months of living expenses in a savings account just in case you lose your source of income.

Furnishing – Also keep in mind the cost of furnishing the place. Usually a good estimate for furnishing is $5,000 – $10,000 per 1,000 square feet of home depending on if you want to go Ikea style or buy stuff that you don’t have to build yourself.

Lending

Down Payment – I would also aim to pay at least 20% on the down payment. Most lenders will give you the A+ offers if you have at least a 20% down payment. The larger the down payment the lower the risk that the lender is taking, hence the better the financing options you’ll be given.

Avoid ARM’s– Personally I would also suggest avoiding any ARMs on your loan. If you need an arm to get your monthly payment low enough so that you’re not broke each month after paying the mortgage, then that means you can’t afford the place to begin with.

30 Year Fixed – As a first time buyer I would also recommend a 30 year fixed mortgage. It gives you the lowest monthly payment and the interest rate will never change. That gives you a consistent cost you can plan for and won’t be thrown for any loops (such as with ARMs) due to sudden changes in the market. You can always restructure the loan later to make it 15-year or 20-year if you want to pay it off faster and not pay as much longterm by cutting down the principle faster.

No Prepayment Penalties – Most lenders should offer this but double check. If you happen across $100,000 someday and want to pay your mortgage down quickly you should be able to without any prepayment penalties.

Location

Also pick a place that you imagine remaining in good shape (ie low crime, local amenities, etc) for at least the next 10 years. Try to get your hands on local development and zoning plans if their are emtpy lots near the place to anticipate what sort of development will happen in you area. The place I bought for example is a 2 minute walk from the major train commuter station, is 1/4 mile off of major freeway access, a high-end grocery store is being built across the street in 2013, and several new local investments have been made into the neighborhood for gentrification purposes to essentially revitalize parts of downtown. It’s becoming much more neighborhood’y and I can imagine being happy there for quite a while.

Timing

Interest Rates Are Good – I got a 30-year fixed mortgage at 4.125%. Currently lenders are offering rates at record lows.

Buyer’s Market – prices continue to drop (or have stabilized at depressed rates) in many areas. There are also plenty of distressed sellers who are trying to get out of their property. This makes for a good buyer’s market where you can find nice places at reasonable costs with a seller that is willing to negotiate. Take advantage of that and don’t buy too quickly.

You Aren’t Ms. Cleo – No one has a crystal ball. If you’re getting into a home because you think you can speculate and sell the place for a 20% profit in 3 years I would suggest you think otherwise. Just ask everyone that lost everything over the last 3 years.

Data and Research – But there are loads of new tools available that make home buying less risky as long as you’re willing to do your research. Sites likehttp://www.trulia.com have loads of historical data in terms of purchase/sell prices of homes in your area, local amenities, etc. You can use that data to understand your local market more and to have a more informed decision of how home values are trending

Think Long Term – Some people are very successful speculators and flip properties for a living. But most of us are not. I subscribe to the Warren Buffett approach to real estate: “never over-leverage, buy in all cash if possible, and plan on owning it for the next 30 years whether you plan on living in it or using as a rental property”. Of course, most people can’t buy in all cash, but you can save for a 20% down payment, covering the cost of furnishing in cash (don’t use credit!), and still having 6-12 months rainy day fund.

Employment – is your job changing anytime soon? Is your company about to go under? Are you currently being paid a market rate that you anticipate being able to hold for several years or the market rate should go up? Are you working in a high-growth industry that should have high job demand for years? Understand the state of your employment as well. You’ll want to try and time your purchase with the timing of your job prosperity or security.

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